NOAA Researcher’s Warning Helps Save Lives in Bangladesh

A detailed map of Bangladesh, hand carried around the world four years ago, launched a chain of events that may have saved thousands of lives when Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, roared ashore from the Bay of Bengal near the border of India and Bangladesh on Thursday, Nov. 15.

If anything in the chain of information would have broken, my attempt would have failed.

Hassan Mashriqui holds up his laptop showing his surge prediction model for Bangladesh

Hassan Mashriqui, a storm surge researcher with NOAA's Louisiana Sea Grant program, holds up his laptop showing his surge prediction model for his home country, Bangladesh, which was facing a deadly cyclone in mid November.

Hassan Mashriqui, an assistant extension professor of coastal engineering with NOAA’s Louisiana Sea Grant and Louisiana State University (LSU), received the map of his native country from his father-in-law who traveled to Louisiana for a family visit.

Since 2003, Mashriqui has been involved in using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model to predict storm surge from hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. As work in the Gulf progressed, he decided to develop models for Bangladesh and neighboring countries.

“We scanned the map as soon as we got it,” recalled Mashriqui, and a program was born to develop a surge modeling and early-warning system for the Bay of Bengal. It is called “Bay of Bengal Cyclone Surge Modeling Program: Use of Supercomputer Technology and GIS for Early Warning.”

Bangladesh Bashed by Killer Cyclones
Bangladesh has two peak cyclone seasons – one in May and one in November. The nation is particularly vulnerable to storms because of its dense population and low-lying geography. It has suffered catastrophic loss of life in the past. In late April 1991, Cyclone Gorky claimed at least 138,000 lives. Cyclone Bhola killed as many as 500,000 in November 1970, a tragedy regarded as one the worst natural disasters of the 20th century.

Fast forward to 2007…Mashriqui became aware of Cyclone Sidr the Monday evening before the storm hit while reviewing information from the U.S. Navy-Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center at Hawaii. Ironically, he was preparing to leave Baton Rouge that Wednesday for a hurricane conference in Florida. Mashriqui contacted a Navy officer who told him that the Indian government had been notified but that he did not think the information was taken seriously.

“When I noticed the track, I called my family in Dhaka, the capital, to see if they were aware of the approaching storm. This was three days before landfall.” Mashriqui explained.

A model prediction storm track superimposed on a detailed map of Bangladesh

A model prediction storm track (yellow line) superimposed on a detailed map of Bangladesh that Researcher/Modeler Mashrique received from his father-in-law.

His brother said they had heard about a tropical depression in the bay, but that it was “no big deal.” In reality, Sidr had reached Category 3 strength with winds of at least 111 mph.

LSU Student Provides Link to Emergency Management
Realizing that people had not been properly warned, Mashriqui located Iftekhar Rhouf, an LSU accounting freshman from Bangladesh whose father is the director of Food and Disaster Management in the Bangladesh Ministry of Food and Disaster Management – the Bangladesh equivalent of the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the United States. Mashriqui told the student to have his father check his email immediately.

In response, Abdur Rhouf telephoned Mashriqui at home on Tuesday, November 13, and said, “Your track looks scary. What does it mean?” and asked for information that he could take to the secretary of his department. Mashriqui had already begun running storm surge models on “SuperMike,” the LSU supercomputer, on nodes that were cleared for him in anticipation of the impending disaster. Mashriqui assured Rhouf that he would forward his data as soon as it was ready. He worked until midnight preparing models, which take the computer two or three hours each to run.

Sleepless Nights before Cyclone Hits
The next day, November 14, en route to Tampa, Mashriqui worked on the storm track. He accessed SuperMike from his hotel at noon. By 3 p.m. he completed predictions on where the storm would land and how much surge it could generate. He emailed the official at 4:45 p.m. CST on Wednesday. In Bangladesh, it was 4:45 a.m. on Thursday – about 12 hours before Sidr would slam the coast.

“I didn’t feel good,” Mashriqui said. “I expected there would be dead by the tens of thousands. I didn’t sleep the rest of the night.”

The storm surge model that Mashriqui developed over a few days, and sent to Bangladeshi emergency management officials in time to warn and evacuate people in the path of Cyclone Sidr. (larger image)

Mashriqui predicted a storm surge as high as 12 feet and associated flooding that might reach 20 to 50 miles inland. His information helped officials decide how and where to evacuate before the storm. After the storm passed, he provided hindcasting to guide aid and rescue efforts to locations that had been hardest hit.

Thanks to the Map, Computing Power, People
“I actually thanked my father-in-law the other day for bringing me the map,” Mashriqui said. “I also thank the managers of the LSU supercomputing system. If anything in the chain of information would have broken, my attempt would have failed. Luckily, everything fell into place. LSU has one of the nation’s leading hurricane research centers when it comes to knowledgeable people and computing power.”

The death toll from Sidr is estimated to be at least 3,500 – tragic, and more than twice the number of dead from Hurricane Katrina, but significantly fewer then in past cyclones.

Mashriqui wants to ensure that Bangladesh scientists and emergency planners gain the same predictive powers that save lives in the Gulf of Mexico. While they have the ability to track and forecast tropical cyclones, they do not have the tools or training to predict storm surge. He plans to participate in upcoming seminars with government officials and to help them access the supercomputing power they will need to generate their own models.

“This will save lives. Furthermore, this is a chance for the Untied States to make a powerful, positive statement in a Muslim country,” Mashriqui said.

NOAA Researcher’s Warning Helps Save Lives in Bangladesh

A map comes to a NOAA modeler who makes a Louisiana connection to an emergency manager in Bangladesh who works to warn about powerful cyclone approaching

NOAA Researcher’s Warning Helps Save Lives
in Bangladesh