Archive of Spotlight Feature Articles

Climate Prediction Applications Science (CPAS) Workshop

NOAA line offices and the external community working together for change. Arizona Workshop brings together broad spectrum of climate experts; from extension specialists working with ranchers on the ground to high-level climate modelers.

By Hannah Campbell and Mike Crimmins

Sunset creates a silhouette of cacti in the Arizona desert.

Desert surrounding Tucson. Photo by Hannah Campbell, NOAA Climate Program Office

Less than 10 days after the first rains fell since mid-October for Phoenix, AZ (a record dry spell of 143 days), the fourth annual Climate Prediction Applications Science (CPAS) Workshop met outside of Tucson for an intense three and a half days of presentations, panel discussions, posters, and dialogue on topics ranging from drought preparedness to water management and health and air quality. This diverse group of government and university scientists came together to share research findings and applications of insights on the use and impacts of climate predictions on societal decision-making and resource management in order to better enable communities to prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate variability and change.

The meeting goals were to identify new climate prediction applications research, promote interactions between climate-sensitive integrated research and service communities, and assess impacts of climate forecasts on environmental-societal interactions.

This fourth workshop was held at Westward Look Resort in Tuscon, Arizona, on March 20 - 24, 2006 and is the latest in a series of workshops initiated and annually co-hosted by the Climate Services Division (CSD), Office of Services, National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS). The co-host this year was the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), a Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) group funded through a competitive grant out of the Climate Program Office (CPO), Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA/OAR) and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.

Climate science has traditionally been scientist-driven with minimal connections back to decision makers. CSD and CPO have been making strides to bridge this gap by providing tools for better use of climate products and funding programs that reach out to users, such as water and land managers, to determine their needs and evaluate how to better communicate and develop climate tools.

This forum provided a rare, but invigorating opportunity for a broad array of experts from anthropologists and economists to climate modelers to meet and discuss challenges and successes. Over the past four years, the CPAS workshop has created a crucial forum for face-to-face contact between NOAA managers and climate scientists and the more locally and regionally based university research community and extension specialists who meet regularly with stakeholders.

As Bob Livezey, Chief of CSD, stated, the CPAS workshop was organized to "create a bridge between producers and disseminators of climate products." CLIMAS, Arizona Cooperative Extension and CSD organizers took great care in creating a workshop structure, including over 40 individual research presentations, four panel discussions, a poster session and ample time for informal discussions and networking, that would create a community atmosphere for maximum exchange of knowledge and experience.

CPASworkshop attendees watch a presentation.

CPAS Workshop Attendees. Photo by Jiayu Zhou, NOAA National Weather Service

Presentations were given by experts from diverse disciplines that focused on domestic as well as international issues. Holly Hartman and Nina Haas from CLIMAS, based at the University of Arizona, presented on the difficulty of communicating climate forecast information in a format that resource management professionals can interpret. This research, funded by the Human Dimensions of Global Change (now the Sectoral Applications Research Program at CPO) found, through surveying of water managers, that most probabilistic forecasts are either misinterpreted, or deemed to be unnecessary by managers due to the way in which the forecasts are displayed. This is important information for producers of climate prediction information in order to enable them to create better strategies for displaying their existing climate products. NOAA is investing in improving the quality of forecasts, and that investment loses value if the forecasts are misinterpreted by the end users.

Greg Carbone, a professor at the University of South Carolina and the primary investigator for the Carolina's Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA: also a RISA group funded through CPO), presented his work with stakeholders in the Carolinas involved in Duke Power's relicensing agreement for FERC dams. The relicensing process has taken place after "one of the worst droughts in recorded time" and that timing has increased involvement among community groups. In particular, these stakeholders have pushed for inclusion of a historical drought evaluation tool that could be used during the re-licensing process. Carbone's group has created a web-based tool that addresses a need for rationally-based triggers for low-inflow protocols, at high spatial resolution, and with flexible mapping and graphing capabilities. This GIS system has assisted in establishing a new set of rules to identify drought triggers for future water management. Managers can use the system to relate their specific impacts to a set of triggers most meaningful to them.

Nicholas Graham, a researcher at the Hydrologic Research Center and the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, presented research on the use of seasonal climate forecast information in water resource management in the Panama Canal. Using a simulated, or "virtual" canal system, he looked at what would have occurred if operational El Niño forecasts were used in decision making over the 1981-97 period. His research has shown that "for a nominally configured canal system, the use of operational El Niño forecasts with appropriately specified uncertainty resulted in approximately $US 330,000,000 (about 3%) in increased income compared with the use of deterministic climate forecasts."

Four panel presentations took place during the CPAS workshop. They addressed the following topics: the NOAA Climate Testbed; Drought; Water Resource Management and Climate Services; Decision Making, Partnerships, and Stakeholders. These panels encouraged interaction among the workshop participants on timely and important topics to the climate science community. Workshop participants heard brief presentations from the panelists and then engaged in lively discussions. Climate Testbed representatives emphasized their need to engage the CPAS community to help them set priorities for new product development.

The poster presentations, meals, breaks and the beautiful Arizona landscape gave ample reason to get out of the conference room and allow participants to speak candidly about their research and products, sharing ideas and experiences.

CPAS workshop attendees visit during a break between sessions.

Climate Prediction Applications Science (CPAS) Workshop. Photo by Jiayu Zhou, NOAA National Weather Service

The Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop's goal was to create an atmosphere of community, enabling discussion aimed at defining and strengthening climate services. The diversity of attendees and presenters, along with good organization and commitment to dialogue enabled NOAA scientists, managers, grantees, contractees (including the NESDIS-supported Regional Climate Centers) and the university scientific community to come together and exchange an amazing amount of insight in a short period of time. NOAA's National Weather Service's Climate Service Division along with the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research's Climate Program Office will benefit from this unique effort to support dialogue that will enable high-quality, easily interpretable and equitable climate services.

To learn more about the CPAS Workshop or the researchers who presented, please check out the following website: http://cals.arizona.edu/climate/CPASW2006/.

NOAA's Climate Program Office plans, programs, resources, and implements a suite of climate programs and services intended to enhance the Nation's understanding of and ability to respond to the effects of climate variability and change. The Office provides design principles and a management framework for the research, modeling, observations, and information products, as well as partnerships, demonstrations, and evaluations necessary to provide regional and national climate services. The Office achieves its mandate through management of a network of activities that maintain well-structured paths from observations, modeling, research and operations to usable information. These paths are established in the context of eliciting and analyzing climate science and services requirements, spanning the information needs of science and society. They include: sponsoring competitively selected research and development activities; developing, with international partners, global climate observing systems; transitioning successful sustained products to operational realities; developing and evaluating a suite of both research and operational climate products and services; and providing educational, outreach and training activities to enhance the reach and relevance of climate services.

4/3/06

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