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NSSL Researchers Working to Improve Forecast Models

by Keli Tarp

"Our researchers benefit from the opportunity to sit shoulder to shoulder with operational meteorologists and look at problems together"

--James Kimpel, NSSL Director

Ever plan a picnic and then have it ruined by lightning, rain and hail? Scientists at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma are working toward improving the tools forecasters use to predict such storms, ultimately providing more time to prepare for them.

For six weeks this spring, NSSL researchers are collaborating with forecasters from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and several visiting scientists to improve forecasts of when and where severe storms will occur. To do this, participants are evaluating several operational and experimental computer models and algorithms used by forecasters, determining which ones provide the best guidance. In addition, they are testing different forecasting techniques during this intensive program. The experiment has brought together forecasters, scientists and modelers all focused on a problem that is of strategic interest to everyone.

Although weather forecasting has improved significantly in recent years, forecasters still struggle with predicting when and where storms will develop. Meteorologists already use output from computer models of the atmosphere to prepare their daily forecasts, but their confidence in this information is limited in certain circumstances, especially in short term prediction of severe storms. They tend to rely on observational tools such as satellites and radars to provide visual proof of thunderstorms beginning to form before a severe thunderstorm watch is issued. The experiment is designed to address this problem. Researchers are exploring the potential of computer models to provide the guidance forecasters need to confidently predict storm formation several hours in advance, while the skies are still clear.

"We need to identify more clearly under what circumstances and with which models we can predict severe thunderstorm development with significant lead time and confidence," said John S. Kain, a research meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory and co-leader of the project with Paul R. Janish, technical development meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Each day, experiment participants mimic forecast decisions typically made by SPC forecasters. However, in the experiment, they are forced to make the decisions and create products earlier than usual using data from several computer models.

"This is a great opportunity for us to stretch our forecasts toward the limits of current science," explained Russell Schneider, chief of the SPC's science support branch. "During the experiment, forecasters are forced to make decisions sooner, sometimes before they see evidence in the satellite and radar data that storms have begun to form. It requires detailed analysis of computer model forecasts including research versions developed at NSSL as well as operational versions developed at NCEP and NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory and made possible by the purchase of the new National Weather Service super computer. Many times these forecasts require a big leap in faith."

The next day, participants evaluate the output from the different models, rating them on their usefulness, and compare their forecasts with what actually happened.

"This process helps the forecasters develop a better understanding of the numerical models that provide their primary source of forecast guidance," Kain said. "And it helps researchers design more useful model guidance products for their specific needs."

NSSL and SPC have worked together on several projects in the past few years. A key goal of these programs is to improve forecasts of meteorological phenomena by speeding up the transfer of new technology and research ideas into forecast operations. At the NSSL and SPC, this is accomplished by combining the skills and mutual research interests of research scientists and forecasters.

"Our researchers benefit from the opportunity to sit shoulder to shoulder with operational meteorologists and look at problems together," said James Kimpel, Director of the National Severe Storms Laboratory. "From this comes new ideas and directions for research."

This collaboration is possible because NSSL and SPC are located in the same building. The SPC moved its operations to Norman from Kansas City in 1997. Their mission is to provide timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow and fire weather events across the U.S. and issues specific products for those hazards.

"It was the potential for great collaboration like this that brought us to Norman and we are excited to see it come to fruition," said Joseph Schaefer, Director of the Storm Prediction Center.

Additional participants in the experiment are from NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center, National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office, Iowa State University and the University of Oklahoma.

More information about the program is available online: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/Spring_2001.

[5/21/01]

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